GH And Petey's Timberwolves Blog

Tuesday, November 01, 2005

It's Like Christmas In November!

Ah yes, the NBA season will finally kick off tomorrow. Undoubtedly, I'm going to have to subscribe to NBA League Pass this season so that I can watch anything I want whenever I want.

Thanks for the advice Todd. I'll try and get around to changing the comment system as soon as I get a chance. This whole spam thing is ridiculously annoying. I encourage everyone who visits my site to not click on any of the links they put down there.

The only bad thing about the beginning of the season is that I didn't quite get a chance to finish my capping system, so it will be somewhat incomplete for the first couple weeks. The reason I haven't posted anything about my season win bets was because I was going to try and finish the system before making any. Since it's not quite done, I restricted myself somewhat. Anyway, here's what I ended up with. When reading my picks you'll see two numbers separated by a slash. The one before the slash is how much I'm betting and the one after is how much I'll win if I win the bet.

Dallas Mavericks Under 53.5 Wins ($57.50/$50)

Every year I think that it will be the year that the Mavs finally tank. Well, this year is no different. Despite picking up Christy, I don't think their defense will really improve. Basically, the other teams will just ignore him on offense and exploit the weaker defensive players through isolation. Since Christy isn't a good offensive player, I can actually see him being a detriment to the team.

Miami Heat Under 58.5 Wins ($57.50/$50)

Most sites have them at 57.5, but VIP had them one higher for just a tad more juice than normal. I think either is a good bet, and as I've been saying, I think Miami will be an overrated team this season. Walker is total crap and Shaq is older and for some reason decided he needed to put on more muscle. The good thing about this for the Heat is that once he gets hurt, they won't even notice Walker taking so many shots.

Atlanta Hawks Over 21.5 Wins ($50/$55)

Sure they're still terrible, but for the love of God, they only need 22 wins! The Wolves could win that many games playing 4 men for the entire season! But seriously, a lot of things have to go wrong for a team to lose that many games. They managed to snag Johnson in the offseason and have some talented looking rookies.

Chicago Bulls Over 43.5 Wins($50/$60)

This is a team that won 47 games a year ago, and I expect them to do even better this season. My guess is that there are a lot of people who started betting the under once Curry got traded and brought the price down considerably. In honesty though, the trade seems like a very good one for the Bulls, and I expect Sweetney to be an ample replacement.

There are a few others that I considered betting but didn't. The most notable of this one is Utah. I had been planning on betting them for a long time, but the price went from -110 to around -135. There still might be some value there, but I decided it's not enough to invest my money for an entire season. The reason I like the over so much was that AK-47 was hurt for much of the season last year and he really is just that good. Arroyo also had a bit of Sprewell disease last year, and so he won't be around to bring them down. The problem as I see it is that they should make the over easily if AK stays healthy, but may have some problems if he gets injured again. So my bet would basically be on whether or not he would stay healthy for long enough to get them there.

The other possible good bet is Cleveland over 48.5, but the price on this one also got jacked up when I wasn't looking. They had a great offseason and will be one of the top teams in the NBA this year.

Alright, here are my bets for tomorrow. I generally like to make my bets before I go to bed if possible, but I'll also make some the next day if I find a line that has moved. Sometimes I'll post a write up and sometimes I'll just post my bets, but I'll do my best to keep them up to date and get them up there quickly! I also tend to line shop a bit, so you might not be able to always find a line as good as the one I'm betting. Don't worry too much about this. Usually I find a line I like and then go hunting for the best line, so even a slightly worse line is (hopefully) +EV.

My bets are going to start out small here, but will hopefully increase as the season goes on. I don't have much of a system as to exactly how much I bet, but I will generally bet higher if I find a nice line that I like.

Denver/SA under 189.5 (33/30)
I fully expected to see a number around 180 here, and my spreadsheet backed me up. It's the first game of the season and neither team should be quite in offensive sync yet. Don't be surprised if neither team gets to 90.

Dallas/Phoenix under 215 (21.20/20)
Are you kidding me? 215? Do the line makers even realize that Phoenix doesn't have Johnson or Stoudemire playing tomorrow?