GH And Petey's Timberwolves Blog

Monday, November 14, 2005

It could always be worse

Last night the Wolves put up what was easily their worst performance of the young season. Everything that made me think such good things about them for the first few games was completely gone. When I turned on the game and found out K-Mart wouldn't even be playing, I thought we would be in for a good game and a win. I had pretty much stopped watching the game about half way through the 3rd quarter. I kept it on, but didn't really have any more interest in it.

With a light NBA schedule tonight I was able to watch pretty much every game that was on tonight.

Well, after watching the Jazz play tonight I realized just how bad things could get. In all my years of watching NBA basketball, I don't think I've ever seen a team play quite that badly. It was pretty astounding to be honest. Without AK (not to mention Boozer) the team is full of young players and Ostertags who basically have no idea what they're doing out there.

The Wolves aren't the Jazz, so we've got that going for us.

I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again. Wolves fans are lucky. Despite the huge disappointment of last year and the lowered expectations for this season, there's a good reason to watch the Wolves every night. That reason, of course, is Kevin Garnett. Because of him, the Wolves always have a chance to win. He's been one of the most consistent, durable, and passionate players in the league for years.

So on nights like last night, just be glad that the Wolves on court leader isn't Mehmet Okur.

No bets yet today.

Yesterday: 1-3 -$76.60
YTD: 23-32-2 -$221.72

I now officially suck. Next time I post a bet, make sure to bet the opposite. You're pretty much guaranteed profit.


So this went from a zero play day to a big play day overnight. I've got a bunch of my normal bets and I made a few 1st quarter bets as well. The 1st quarter bets have some interesting things going for them. There are generally fewer variables to consider. You'll mostly have starters and top reserves playing, so depth isn't as much of a factor. Also, you don't need to take into consideration covariance.

For those who don't know, covariance is a mathematical term referring to the interrelation of two variables. In an NBA game, it is insufficient to merely consider the average number of points scored by each team in order to determine a spread. If the spread is small, it is probably fine, but for larger spreads it is something that needs to be considered. For instance, if team A is expected to score 100 points and team B is expected to score 80 points, the spread should be strictly less than 20 points since once the game nears the end, there's no reason for team A to run up the score if they're already up by 15.

On the other hand, it can be a bit trickier to predict these things since you can't rely as much on total points scored. Ideally, you should consider only 1st quarter performances. However, just looking at 1st quarter numbers can give you a very small sample size.

Note: I didn't actually do very thorough analysis on the first quarter numbers. Rather, I bet them because they were numbers that looked good compared to the other numbers I had.

Utah/Sacramento Under 188 ($33/$30)
Washington(+6.5) at Cleveland ($20/$20)
Washington(ML) at Cleveland ($20/$52)
Minnesota(-2.5) vs. Houston ($30.30/$30)
Denver(+7.5) at Dallas ($32/$30.45)

First Quarters
Denver(+2.5) at Dallas ($16.50/$15)
Atlanta(+5.5) at SA ($15/$15.90)
Utah(+3) at Sacramento($15.75/$15)