Picks 11/13

The day started out well, but didn't quite get to the amazing day I thought I might have. Memphis blew a 12-point lead only to win by 1 at the buzzer (c'mon guys, if you're not gonna cover, at least give my beloved Hawks their first win).

Minnesota(+6) at Denver ($21/$20)
Toronto(+3.5) vs. Seattle ($22/$20)

Yesterday 3-3 +$16.20
YTD: 22-28-2 -$102.12

Picks 11/12

The day started out well, but didn't quite get to the amazing day I thought I might have. Memphis blew a 12-point lead only to win by 1 at the buzzer (c'mon guys, if you're not gonna cover, at least give my beloved Hawks their first win).

Minnesota(+6) at Denver ($21/$20)
Toronto(+3.5) vs. Seattle ($22/$20)

Yesterday 3-3 +$16.20
YTD: 22-28-2 -$102.12

Done and Done

Well, the GRE is finished. I think it went pretty well, though not spectacularly. It's 66 questions in 170 minutes. I breezed through the first 17 questions in about 20 minutes, which was really nice. After that, the questions started to get a bit harder, so I had to slow down. But, I did have extra time to work through the more difficult questions because of all the time I had saved.

Anyway, I got home and had some gambol in me, so here are the picks of the day.

GS(+7.5) at Phoenix ($22/$20)
GS(ML) at Phoenix ($10/$28.7)
Charlotte/Miami Over 187 ($22/$20)
Memphis(-4.5) at Atlanta ($21.80/$20)
Memphis/Atlanta Under 191 ($21.80/$20)
NO(+7.5) over Dallas ($31.50/$30)

Wish me luck

I've got the Math GRE at 8:30 this morning. Hope it goes better than my NBA betting.

Hopefully I'll have a chance to put up a real post this weekend. It was kind of a good time for them to have some time off--at least from my perspective.

No bets today. At least not yet.

Yesterday: 1-6-1 -$115
YTD: 19-25-2 -$118.32

It's always nice to know that a monkey making picks randomly would be doing better than you on average.

Picks 11/11

Managed to recoup a bit of my losses from yesterday today. I'll probably check in tomorrow to see what the lines have done and may be adding some more.

Indiana/NJ Under 192 ($22/$20)
Utah(-4) at Toronto ($21.60/$20)
Denver(+2) at Sacramento ($21/20)
Denver(ML) at Sacramento ($20/$24.40)

Analysis: Toronto and Sacramento have been terrible. That is all.

Yesterday: 2-1 +$19.40
YTD: 18-19-1 -$3.32

Edit:

Adding

Charlotte(ML) vs. Dallas ($20/$40)
Charlotte(+5) vs. Dallas ($21.60/$20)
Dallas/Charlotte Over 192 ($30.60/$30)
Detroit(-7) at Portland ($21.8/$20)

It was really hard for me to pull the trigger on a road team playing a back-to-back and giving up 7 points, but Detroit is playing extraordinary basketball right now, and Portland is one of the worst teams in the league. I may live to regret this one, but the numbers seemed pretty good for Detroit. Charlotte has also been playing decent basketball, and only has losses to tough teams so far. No way they should be 5-point dogs versus and overrated Dallas team at home.

Picks 11/10

Well I finally broke my run of 50/50 days. Guess I should be careful what I wish for. As is generally the case with Thursdays, today is a light schedule, but I managed to find quite a bit of value nonetheless

Houston(+6) over Miami ($22/$20)
Detroit(-1) over Phoenix ($22/$20)
Detroit/Phoenix Under 201.5 ($20.60/$20)

Yesterday 1-3 -$52.70
YTD 16-18-1 -$22.72

Wolves notes and the hell that is my life

I'll start off with the Wolves notes, since that's why most of you come here. I don't normally talk too much about myself on here, but I know some of you might be interested to learn more about me and this seems like a good time, as I might be able to elicit some sympathy from some of you.

Wolves Notes

The home game the other night against showed some very positive signs. After a disheartening loss in LA, we took a Clippers team that's been playing strongly to the rack at home. In particular, the stretch in the 3rd/4th quarter where the Wolves took control of the game showed some very promising signs.

Normally, KG gets taken out of the game near the end of the third quarter and gets rested for a while, however, in this game Casey decided to leave him in there. This is the kind of thing I rarely (sometimes in the playoffs, but I don't think ever in the regular season) saw Flip do. However, I think this was a very good and intuitive decision by Casey and I hope he continues to make in game coaching decisions based on the flow of the game, rather than on a predetermined formula. There are several reasons I liked this decision.

1. The Wolves were playing really well together

This is the first time I've really seen this from the Wolves this season. I mentioned that in the beginning of the Portland game, it really looked like they were working to get a good shot. But this time was a little bit different. This went beyond just some sort of system. Watching the Wolves, you got the impression that they were starting to get a feel for how what the others on the court were thinking. It was good to let the Wolves stay out there and continue to gel--to really get a feel for one another.

2. The Wolves have struggled during that period in previous games

In both the Seattle game and the Clippers game at LA, we had taken the lead, only to see it squandered when KG sat on the bench. We didn't want to do that again and risk another collapse. Leaving KG in there could help us maintain the lead, and hopefully push it to an "un-chokeable" amount.

3. You can always rest KG later

In terms of minimizing KG's minutes, you can actually probably get him more rest on average this way. His absolute in-game rest minutes might be somewhat fewer, but if your primary concern is keeping him strong for the long haul, this isn't a bad way to go. The reason is that if the Wolves are able to continue pushing the lead, it can become insurmountable and KG can ride the pine for the last 6 minutes of the game or so. If you take him out earlier, he's gonna need to come back in anyway. This way, you can potentially give him a few extra minutes. As it turned out, the Wolves started to struggle a little bit without him in there and he needed to come back in, but at least we still had a rather large lead at that point and were able to easily secure the victory.

The Hell that is my life

I've mentioned on here before (I think) that I'm currently a grad student at the University of Minnesota in Computer Science. I had originally been in the PhD program, but last year I decided to quit after a masters and switch to a math program. Had I been more on the ball, I could have easily finished last year, but I opted instead to take my sweet time.

As a result, I don't have much left to finish up this term. I need two classes and I could have finished it up this term, but most math programs don't allow mid-year applications, so instead, I'm taking one CS course each term, and two math courses. My original plan was to take two of the year-long math sequences that normally constitute the first year of the PhD math program at the U. Unfortunately, I realized 2 days into the term that this was going to be too much work. In addition to two PhD level math courses, I would be taking a difficult CS course, working half time, looking at grad schools, preparing for the GRE, and trying to find time to blog and watch basketball. I then decided to drop one of the math courses and pick up "only" a masters level math course.

Well, that decision turned out to be a great one, but I still feel I may have overextended myself somewhat academically. Here's what my schedule is like right now:

Last Thursday: Give an all-day seminar on a system I developed
Monday: One (very hard) assignment due
Today: Two assignments (one hard, one easier) due
Friday: Test
Saturday: Math Subject GRE
Next Monday: One (very hard) assignment due
Next Wednesday: One test and one (easier) assignment due

In a week I might be able to catch my breath a little bit (but not really). I'm planning on chilling most of the night tonight and watching basketball, but I'll have to throw a little bit of studying in there at some point.

So now, if any of my ramblings seem incoherent, you know why.

Another Pick

As I suggested might happen:

Utah(ML) over NJ ($20/$54)

Picks 11/9

First off, can people see the comments on here and do they look right? I had some problems with them. If you can't see them or whatever, please drop me an email and let me know.

Wish I could have posted about the Wolves today, but I've been swamped with work again. Sometime this week, I'll give you some Wolves insight, as well as some insight into the world I've been living in.

I managed to go 50/50 for what seems like the hudredth straight day (although it's actually only 4). I suppose that's ok though, as long as I continue to be positive each day. It's surprising because normally you're supposed to lose to the vig, but the combination of good odds and winning the right bets has kept skyrocketing. Ok, maybe not skyrocketing, but not the opposite of skyrocketing either. That's nosediving. More like the inverse of skyrocketing, or 1/skyrocketing.

Seattle/Cleveland Under 201 ($22/$20)
Seattle was dreadful on offense tonight. They're going to play a tough team on the road and may very well get slaughtered again. I considered a bet on the spread on this one, but hated having to lay so many points. Still, I think Seattle gets destroyed and hopefully goes under 70 again.

Utah(+7.5) over NJ ($21.20/$20)
Utah's shown some strength early, and I still think they're being underrated by the public. Probably because they were crap last year and play in Utah. I may add a moneyline bet on this one tomorrow as well.

Lakers/Minnesota Over 189.5 ($31.50/$30)
I'm just going by the numbers here and they screamed over. My initial thought was that the numbers might be somewhat inflated due to the 3 combined overtime games the teams have played, but I took those out and the over was still a great bet.

Yesterday: 2-2 +$8.00
YTD: 15-15-1 +$29.98

Picks 11/8

I delayed in putting this up because I didn't want to trample a Petey post right away. I also have plenty to say about last night's game, but I'm going to wait until later to write that up. Here's what I've got for today.

GS(+6) over Milwaukee ($21/$20)
GS(ML) over Milwaukee ($20/$40)
Orlando/Houston over 175 ($30/$30.60)
Seattle/Memphis over 185.5 ($22/$20)

Yesterday 2-2 +$2.50
YTD 13-13-1 +$21.98

Quentin Ross - Top 5 player in the NBA?

Okay, so as we all know, I suck at blogging (and life but that's for a different blog). However! I should be getting league pass in a month or so when I move into a new place here in the OC.

Anyway, Saturday morning I realized that the Twolves were in town playing the Clips and like the genius I am I didn't have tickets. No problem, I decided I could watch it on TV while IMing Greek (who most definitely would be watching). This will be pseudo Sports Guy Diary style, except it's *actual* excerpts from my conversation with Greek.

[early in the 1st quarter]

Petey Smooth: the announcers just said 'Brand vs. his nemesis kevin garnett'
Petey Smooth: hehe
Petey Smooth: u know those two really have it out for each other
GH: yeah, and aren't you really supposed to be on a par with your nemesis?
Petey Smooth: duncan vs. kg is a better 'nemesis' matchup tho
GH: yeah

Petey Smooth: apparently ross' teammates on the clips call him 'trenton hassell' b/c he's good at D
Petey Smooth: the announcers are actually really talking up this guy altho i've barely heard of him....weird
GH: i wonder if robert swift's teammates call him kandi
GH: cause he's bad at everything

Petey Smooth: jaric is crap
GH: what!?!?
Petey Smooth: i'm sorry he's made like 2 passes so far in the game of like 3 feet so far and they weren't good at all, almost turnovers
Petey Smooth: i should reserve judgement for later tho
Petey Smooth: but so far he still looks stoned and out of it like he did in clipperland
GH: he's been very good so far this season

[five minutes later after Jaric delivers a nice entry pass to Wally who then decides dribbling a bunch in the post will help me launch a post-move]

Petey Smooth: ok fine..jaric isn't crap
Petey Smooth: altho wally shouldn't immediately dribble the ball 20 times in the post, that's just retarded

GH: this is off to a horrendous start
GH: i don't understand why they're booing jaric
GH: what did he ever do to them?
Petey Smooth: b/c he left? i dont get it either
Petey Smooth: they got cassell out of it!
GH: finley got a standing O in dallas tonight
GH: maybe it's cause clippers fans are retarded

Petey Smooth: the guy said after cassells sweeping hooky thing 'holey smokers'
Petey Smooth: wtf?
Petey Smooth: holey smokers?!?!?!
GH: it's kinda an oh my godner

Petey Smooth: aw shit
Petey Smooth: madsen is soooo bad
Petey Smooth: i mean i love the guy
Petey Smooth: but he's so bad :-(
Petey Smooth: guh

[2 possessions later]

GH: madsen with the monster jam!

[some point in the 2nd or 3rd quarter]

GH: that guy who just checked in for the clippers played for "armani jeans milano" last year
GH: they named their team after a product dude
Petey Smooth: well it could be alot worse
GH: like "maxi tampons havana"?
GH: madagascar kyj?
GH: anal lube?
GH: the minnesota fuck shits?

[again, at some random time during the game]

Petey Smooth: i dont even know who mcgants or whoever is
GH: mccants
GH: he was our #1 pick
Petey Smooth: we drafted him and he actually plays! it's a miracle!

GH: we're playing like absolute shit
GH: dear god
GH: one good airball deserves another
GH: zoidberg 2 [richie frahm]!!!
GH: for three!!!
Petey Smooth: where'd we even get him [frahm]?
GH: FA I think

[revisiting the fans booing jaric - which has been going on all game]

Petey Smooth: they should boo cassell
GH: i'm booing him
Petey Smooth: i'm booing kandi
Petey Smooth: :-)
Petey Smooth: ok not really
Petey Smooth: but i should

[4th quarter...Twolves look like their gasping at straws]

Petey Smooth: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD SCORE

[hearing his plea, Kandi hits his patented craptastic hook in traffic]

Petey Smooth: JESUS
Petey Smooth: WHAT THE FUCK
Petey Smooth: kandi to save the Twolves!
Petey Smooth: M V P
GH: he's like the 39th best player on the team!
Petey Smooth: at least
GH: right after McHale
Petey Smooth: and he proved it right there Brendon...that's good team play
GH: it's an easy game if you play it the right way
Petey Smooth: i think he left his bong back in MN this time
Petey Smooth: and no one in LA will hook him up anymore

[more insight on how closely Petey has followed bball this offseason]

GH: thud ABUSING cassell on the low block
Petey Smooth: i didnt even know we had him anymore lol
Petey Smooth: i thought he decided to stick to rapping
GH: he wanted a multi-record contract
GH: they wouldn't give it to him
GH: even when he compained about feeding his family

[late in the 4th quarter, the announcers have the most brilliant exchange all game]

Petey Smooth: lol, check out this exchange from the Clip's announcers:
Petey Smooth: 'Quentin Ross....one of the best players in the league'
Petey Smooth: 'in the league?!'
Petey Smooth: 'why not!'
Petey Smooth: 'at least top 5'
Petey Smooth: 'in the nba?!?'
Petey Smooth: 'yes! in the nba!'
Petey Smooth: i want to play that announcer in fantasy bball
GH: that's funny
GH: i mean...he's no darius songaila
Petey Smooth: 'better than tim duncan?'
Petey Smooth: 'well no..i mean...best players....like top 5'
Petey Smooth: 'better than tmac?'
Petey Smooth: 'well.....no tmac is 4'

[KG and Twolves are in the midst of mounting a furious comeback]

Petey Smooth: too bad the clips have Quentin Ross
Petey Smooth: one of the top 5 players in the league
GH: hey man...that guy's a future HOFer

GH: you should write this one up on our blog
Petey Smooth: perhaps
GH: you can talk about the stupid shit the clippers anouncers said

[Brand hits some mid range shot]

Petey Smooth: 'I think Elton Brand found a new facet to his game....'
Petey Smooth: 'I think KG can't handle him'

[KG hits the floor in pain]

GH: KG's hurt
Petey Smooth: 'garnett...suddenly healed'
Petey Smooth: hehe even when they say normal stuff it's funny

[KG hits a soft mid range jumper off the glass]

Petey Smooth: 'whoa....whoa....whoa'
Petey Smooth: ahh..timmyesque...apparently the announcers don't know he has that range

[our exchange during the break between regulation and OT]

Petey Smooth: on the last play of regulation one announcer said 'well the one guy i dont worry about on this play is jaric...'
Petey Smooth: it was sorta funny
GH: haha
GH: they shoulda said kandi
Petey Smooth: they were like 'kg obv is dangerous..wally can shoot well...griffin could get a rebound....Kandi has that little hook....yeah jaric can't take this shot'
Petey Smooth: it was hilarious
GH: haha
Petey Smooth: i was hoping KG got doubled and jaric got a wide open med jumper and drained it
GH: they're retarded
Petey Smooth: yes way worse than Warriors announcers
Petey Smooth: it is so funny

[Wally falls down on offense and the clippers feed Quentin Ross for a *wide open* mid range jumper. No one within 10 feet of him]

Petey Smooth: 'one of THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE LEAGUE!'
Petey Smooth: 'YES! HE IS RIGHT NOW!!'
Petey Smooth: did they realize he took a WIDE OPEN jumper b/c wally fell down?
GH: there are only a handful that could have made that shot
Petey Smooth: like.....anyone on the court but kandi
GH: and most of the people in the stands
Petey Smooth: i will keep a running diary of clipper announcer quotes
Petey Smooth: that should be my contribution to our blog
Petey Smooth: oh fuck...here's more on that shot 'quentin ross is a special player'
GH: "special"
Petey Smooth: 'the guts to take that shot.....says alot about whats inside'

Petey Smooth: great shot off of one foot with 3 defenders by Cassell
GH: shoulda given it to ross
Petey Smooth: i know
GH: best player ever

[last possession in OT, Wolves with the ball, a handful of seconds on the clock and down by 1]

Petey Smooth: 'clippers still have a foul to give....an ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL statistic here in OT'
Petey Smooth: like he's right....but he just sounds retarded

[KG makes a strong move to the hoop and gets fouled]

Petey Smooth: 'coulda waited a little longer'
Petey Smooth: i bet like 95% of the time the announcers say that or 'shoulda given the foul' in this situation...never, 'that's good basketball, perfectly timed'

[KG somehow misses the game winning shot in OT from point blank]

Petey Smooth: jesus
Petey Smooth: MOTHER FUCKERS
GH: fuck
GH: i don't know how he missed that

Petey Smooth: one announcer just recapped the game 'mobley was absolutely splendid'
Petey Smooth: lol, what happened to Quentin Ross? I mean, he *is* one of the 5 best players in the NBA

I think this sort of thing has promise and I will have to toy with the format and how copiously I track the ridiculously retarded Clipper announcers. Perhaps I should do running feature where I just give choice quotes whenever I see a Clip game. If anyone even reads this blog, let me know what you think - especially if your name is Toey, ;).

Picks 11/7

It's been a long day of work, and I almost forgot to make my picks for today. Here they are

Chicago (+6) over SA ($21.20/$20)

The Spurs showed a bit of mortality against Dallas the other night. Chicago is a strong team at home and even if the can't manage to take out the Spurs, there's still a very good chance they'll beat the spread.

Miami(-3) over NJ ($20.60/$20)

I know I said I'd be betting against Miami a lot early in the season, but things have changed. With Shaq out, the public will tend to overbet their opponents, so now Miami might actually be a good bet. They're still a very good team with a lot of depth and they should cover the small spread most of the time.

Yesterday 1-1 +$8.90
YTD 11-11-1 +$19.49

Edit 1:

Adding

Cleveland/Toronto Under 201 ($20/$21.17)
SA/Chicago Over 184 ($20/$23.13)

You can always tell when I make a bet at matchbook because I end up with these weird numbers.

Picks 11/6

I don't have time to comment on the game right now. In fact, I'll be extremely busy all week so my posting will be slim.

GS(+4) over NY($30/$30.30)
Denver(-1.5) over Lakers($21.40/$20)

Yesterday 4-4 -$3.40
YTD 10-10-1 +$10.59